Sterling Heights, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

640
FXUS63 KDTX 292015
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
315 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer conditions return Thursday. Rain is expected Friday
morning, transitioning to a mix of rain and snow, with some freezing
rain Friday afternoon.

- There is a chance of rain and snow Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The southern edge of the arctic air now extending across the
northern Great Lakes will depart to the northeast tonight while mid
level heights rebound across the Great Lakes. Mid level
confluence/subsidence will result in a strengthening of the sfc high
pressure over the Ohio Valley. Mid level warm air advection will
promote some mid/high clouds overnight. Generally light low level
winds and dry boundary layer air will still support a period of
decent radiational cooling, dropping nighttime mins into the
teens/low 20s. Low level southerly flow will increase on Thursday as
the sfc high settles across the eastern seaboard. This will result
in a respectable low level warming trend amidst increasing southerly
flow. Mixing depths will remain limited within this warm air
advection regime. Ample daytime sunshine will still boost high temps
into the 40s.

Upper low ejecting out of the southern rockies will lift into the
mid Mississippi Valley Thurs night/Friday morning. There is fairly
good agreement that the warm conveyor associated with this system
will be driven into the Upper Ohio Valley, thus displacing the
heavier precipitation well to the south. Low to mid level theta e
advection will however spread some light precip across the southern
portions of the forecast area, toward daybreak Friday. Model
soundings are supportive of enough warm air through a respectable
depth in the low levels (over 7k feet) to support all rain.

As the upper low advances across the Ohio Valley on Friday, model
solutions are in general agreement that the low will transition to
an open wave as it crosses Ohio into the Appalachians. Prior to this
occurring, there will be a ribbon of enhanced mid level deformation
on the north side of the upper low, forecast to cross southern lower
Mi. The forecast strength of the mid level fgen within a layer of
low static stability will elicit a respectable region of narrow
frontogenetical response. Available ensemble members suggest some
slight spread of placement of the getter mid level response. The
most probable locals to see precip will be along/south of M 59, with
probabilities dropping off to the north. The depth of low level warm
air will support all rain Fri morning. Colder air is forecast to
advect in from the north as the FGEN region begins to depart. Model
soundings suggest a transition to freezing rain/sleet/wet snow
before the system exits east by Fri evening. The majority of
ensemble guidance suggests any snow accums to remain under 3 inches
with just trace/few hundreds ice amounts possible. There a few
ensemble members higher then this on the snowfall amount, not
unreasonable if a localized stronger band develops. This can be
better addressed in later forecast cycles.

Northerly flow associated with high pressure to the north of the
Great Lakes will drive a little cooler air into the region Saturday.
A fast moving mid level short wave and moist warm air advection will
overspread Lower Mi Sunday/Sunday night, bringing the next chance
for precipitation (likely another wintry mix).

&&

.MARINE...

Strong northwest winds over Lake Huron this afternoon, with gusts
aoa 30 knots across the open waters. The low level cold advection
has just about been fully exhausted however, and wind speeds will
slowly diminish this evening and tonight. A wind shift will occur to
the southwest Thursday morning as surface ridge slides through.
Moderate south-southwest flow for Thursday and Thursday night, but
warm advection pattern will increase near surface stability, as 925
MB temps rise above 0 C across southern Lake Huron/Lake St. Clair
and Lake Erie. Subsequently, low pressure tracking through the Ohio
Valley late thursday night-Friday will bring predominately rain to
the region.

North-northeast winds will follow the passage of this low pressure
system, with wind speeds peaking out in the 20-25 knot range Friday
evening, allowing for large waves to build over the southern Lake
Huron Basin. Another surface ridge arriving for Saturday will allow
winds to become light before moderate southerly flow develops for
the second half of the Weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Light rain will overspread southeast Michigan Thursday night and
persist into Friday. The rain will mix with and possibly change over
to snow Friday afternoon. Total liquid equivalent precipitation
amounts of a quarter to three quarters of an inch are possible. The
higher amounts are more probable south of the I-69 corridor.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

AVIATION...

The cold front that is about to exit southern Lower Mi at forecast
issuance leaves behind NW wind gusting in the 20 to 30 knot range as
the afternoon aviation weather highlight. Inbound cold air has fired
up clouds and snow showers off the northern Great Lakes diminishing
to just VFR ceiling and flurries with a stray patch of MVFR ceiling
off southern Lake Michigan. The wind consistently from WNW direction
holds stronger Superior/Michigan snow bands north of MBS until
pushed even farther north as cloud layer wind begins a SW backing
trend. The wind trend occurs as the cold front washes out in favor
of high pressure ridging across Lower Mi tonight to further shift
lake effect clouds/flurries to the north and out of SE Mi. Clear sky
to broken cirrus from mid evening gives way thickening mid level
clouds which hold above 5000 ft through Thursday morning and then
shift northward for mostly clear sky in the afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less this afternoon.

* West-northwest wind is near crosswind threshold this afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ441-442.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......SF
HYDROLOGY....SC
AVIATION.....BT


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